Iraq: between a fragile state and the quest for stability

The representation crisis illustrated by the high abstention rate in the last legislative elections, the multiplicity of the state and of its parastatal actors after the fall of Saddam Hussein and the Ba’ath Party, endemic corruption, agonising public services, repeated wars and crises since the 1980s, the American invasion in 2003, the appearance of the Islamic State organisation, militias integrated into the state apparatus, etc. Many causes explain the gradual weakening process of the Iraqi state and the complexity of its desperate quest for stability.

The Climate crisis, its impact on the population and political instability in Iraq

Iraq is one of the countries that finds itself the most threatened by climate change, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) latest report, published on April 4, 2022. This is an obvious fact that has been highlighted by current events: the senior advisor to the Ministry of Water Resources, Aoun Dhiab, announced on Thursday April 21, that Iraqi water reserves have halved compared to 2021 while according to the World bank, the country can lose up to 20% of its water resources in a permanent way by 2050; seven sand storms have hit the country since the beginning of April; for the first time, Sawa lake, with a surface of 5Km2, south of Iraq, has entirely disappeared ; in 2020, Niniveh has produced around 1 million tons of wheat which is 10 times less than it had produced in 2021 ; one in two Iraqi families living in zones affected by droughts is threatened by food insecurity, according to the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) report published in December 2021. Facing the urgency of this situation, the CFRI and its associate researcher Bertille Domalain wish through this research paper, to delve into this topic and analyse its causes and consequences.

Iraq trapped between Turkey and Iran, two hydro-hegemons

Whereas the twentieth century symbolized the abundance of black gold for Middle East countries, the beginning of the twenty-first century was marked by shortages of blue gold. Trapped between Turkey and Iran, two hydro-hegemons capable of controlling the flows of both the Tigris and the Euphrates, Iraq is also vulnerable to climate change. Above all, in Iraq, the water crisis, the result of decades of inaction on the part of the government, is also due to a lack of regional cooperation and coordination.

Climate change, internal displacement and humanitarian crises in Iraq

Climate change acts as a multiplier of threats when correlated with other factors related to political instability. Insecurity, lack of economic opportunities, and environmental degradation are among the reasons that drive individuals to leave their native region. The resulting humanitarian crises pose many challenges, particularly when displacements are motivated by climate-related hazards.