Following Republican candidate Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. presidential elections held in mid-November, a critical question arises: What strategic approach will President Trump adopt toward Iraq? Will we witness a continuation of his first-term, which positioned Iraq within the larger context of the U.S.-Iran rivalry, or will Iraq be given a distinct strategic focus, separate from the Iranian question? Furthermore, what will the consequences of his strategy be for the future of the U.S.-Iraq relations, which remain fragile due to a multitude of internal and external factors?
A Troubled Legacy
After his first election, Trump sought to address the failures of U.S. policy in Iraq under former President Barack Obama. A review of his strategic approach during his first term shows that Iraq was thrust into an extremely difficult position. It is likely he will also attempt to rectify the same shortcomings inherited from Joe Biden’s administration during his second term.
The challenges that Iraq inherited from the war against ISIS persist and have formed the cornerstone of U.S.-Iran interactions in the country. These challenges became particularly pronounced following the defeat of ISIS, which allowed Iran and its allies in the country to rise significantly. These groups inherited ISIS’s resources and influence, directly antagonising the United States.
The situation reached a breaking point when in early January 2020, the Trump administration ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces. This operation provoked backlash, with Iraq’s parliament—dominated by Tehran’s allies—passing a resolution calling for the withdrawal of U.S. forces. This was accompanied by escalating attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq by Iranian-backed factions, prompting the U.S. to exert greater political, military, and economic pressure on Iraq.
During Trump’s first term Iraq became a battleground for the US-Iran power struggle both politically and militarily, severely undermining Iraq’s political and security stability. Additionally, the country’s economy suffered significantly as a result of U.S. sanctions targeting its financial institutions.
Despite Iraqi efforts to engage in strategic dialogues with the U.S. to stabilise bilateral relations, these discussions were tainted by external interference. Iran and its allies exerted considerable influence to obstruct the openness policies adopted by former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi toward the U.S. and other Arab countries. This obstruction was a reaction to the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran in May 2018 initiated under Trump.
Now, with the Biden administration’s subsequent policy of de-escalation with Iran, combined with the Iranian-backed Coordination Framework gaining control of Iraq’s political landscape, the country faces the prospect of a renewed wave of U.S.-Iran escalation during Trump’s second term. The profiles of individuals likely to assume key positions in his administration suggest a highly challenging phase for Iraq, with a stricter American stance on Iran anticipated.
A Second Term Under Pressure
The complexities Iraq may face under Trump’s new administration extend beyond his negative perception of the country. They are also tied to the broader regional challenges facing the U.S., including the ongoing crises in Gaza and Lebanon and Iranian allies potentially dragging the country into these conflicts. Although Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani has pursued a neutral stance to shield Iraq from the Israeli war in Gaza and Lebanon, the shadow of conflict looms large, especially given Iran’s desire to pressure Israel on multiple regional fronts.
The new Trump administration is likely aware of the complexities surrounding Iraq. Baghdad today is significantly different from what it was during Trump’s first term. Through its Shia allies within the Coordination Framework, Iran has entrenched itself in the political and institutional structures. This necessitates a recalibrated U.S. strategy that ensures a separation between Iraq’s political system and the factions aligned with Iran.
A critical juncture lies ahead, with Iraq’s general elections scheduled for next year. A clear and actionable U.S. vision could facilitate meaningful change in these elections, potentially curtailing Iran’s influence in Iraq.
Key U.S. Priorities in Iraq
Three main issues are likely to define U.S. engagement with Iraq during Trump’s second term:
Firstly in terms of military entente, the U.S. and Iraq agreed in September 2024 to a phased withdrawal of U.S. forces, with a partial disengagement by September 2025 and a complete exit by September 2026. Will the Trump administration honour these agreements, abandon them, or link them to developments in regional conflicts like those in Gaza and Lebanon?
Secondly, Iranian-backed armed groups remain a critical source of tension in the U.S.-Iraq relations. Given the confrontational history throughout Trump’s first term, his return to the presidency may see even tougher measures, ranging from military action to economic containment, dependent on the broader U.S.-Iran dynamic.
Lastly, Iran’s growing sway in Iraq has consistently shaped U.S. policy since 2003. With nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran stalled and Iran’s continuing support for conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, a new chapter of “maximum pressure” sanctions against Tehran seems imminent. Trump’s recent post-election statements about pursuing a new nuclear deal signal a potentially transformative approach, though it will likely face substantial resistance from Iran. Continued sanctions against Tehran could pose significant challenges for Baghdad, given its heavy dependence on Iranian energy and trade. Expanding U.S. sanctions on Iran would force Iraq to seek alternative regional partnerships or face severe repercussions.
Strategic Recommendations for Iraq
Iraq remains a focal point of U.S.-Iran competition for influence in the Middle East but also faces internal crises exacerbated by fluctuating oil prices, regional conflicts, widespread corruption, and unemployment. These issues hinder Iraq’s progress toward full sovereignty in economic, political, and security matters.
To navigate these challenges, Iraq must articulate a clear national vision, outlining its priorities with the new Trump administration. In order to maintain its proximity with Washington and safeguard their interests Iraq must present measures to protect American interests, bases, and companies operating within its borders. The government should also demonstrate its capacity to manage and contain Iran-backed factions effectively to reduce U.S. concerns about instability and conflict. Regarding Iraqi-Iranian relations, Baghdad needs to clarify its stance on Iran’s influence on the country and offer strategies to balance its relationships with both Tehran and Washington. Lastly, Iraq should engage the U.S. on ways to stabilise its economy and strengthen its military and intelligence capabilities to counter threats such as ISIS.
U.S. Responsibilities
Conversely, Iraq is likely to come up with its own uncertainties to the new Trump administration which will require clear American answers to establish a constructive framework for bilateral relations. These include inquiries regarding the practical steps that the United States is willing to take to safeguard Iraqi sovereignty and to adopt clear programs that support Iraq’s regional and international endeavours. Similarly, Iraq will seek clarity on measures the United States can implement to advance the country’s economic and developmental agendas, particularly in the realms of health and infrastructure. Furthermore, Iraq will inquire about the steps the United States intends to take to enhance Iraq’s military capabilities, focusing on security, intelligence, and logistical support. Another critical issue revolves around how the United States plans to address the Iranian presence and its affiliated armed factions in Iraq. The Iraqi party will also demand clarity on whether they are expected to play a role in any future potential American escalation against Tehran, as well as the implications of failing to meet any commitments that the U.S. might require from Iraq in this regard.
Conclusion
The success of U.S.-Iraq relations during Trump’s second term will hinge on mutual commitment to a stable and transparent strategic framework. This requires clear timelines and shared responsibilities to transition Iraq into a fully sovereign state capable of contributing to regional stability. The U.S. must invest in strengthening Iraq’s institutions rather than using them as tools for regional conflicts. Iraq, in turn, must work to assert its neutrality and foster a balanced approach to external powers, in order to ensure a path toward long-term stability and international integration.
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To cite this article : Firas Elias, "Challenges Facing Iraq in light of President Trump's Second Term", Centre Français de recherche sur l'Irak (CFRI), 22/11/2024, [https://cfri-irak.com/en/article/challenges-facing-iraq-in-light-of-president-trumps-second-term-2024-11-22]
